The Political and Environmental Oil Problem(s) (pre)

The Political and Environmental Oil Problem(s)

In this essay we would like to bring up the problems of oil worldwide and analyse to what extent these problems threaten the social order of which we live in today. We are going to focus on how much oil remains and what will happen to the society when it runs out, as well as the environmental problems which are caused by burning and other usage of oil or “fossil fuels”.

World War III, “The Oil War”?

Today we are often told that oil is running out as the value of oil rises. Great research has begun to develop alternative fuels like gas and nuclear power. But the fact still stands that oil is still the cheapest energy resource on the planet and as long as it is we will have to face its usage around the world. In the US it has been calculated that oil recourses are actually not drying up, in western parts of the world the oil resources are dwindling but in southern countries of Africa, Asia and the Middle East there is still lots of oil to be found. This is what has been estimated in the US and much blame is forced on these countries for creating a cartel and forcing oil prices higher then the actual value of the oil. With these estimations and facts the US government argues that the real oil problem is not the decreasing oil resources, but the countries holding it back for a higher demand.

The risk that this oil-economy problem brings us is obvious, it can very likely lead to disputes and disagreements between countries such as US and Middle East countries, if the oil is used as a weapon against the US by collapsing its economy it could be the start of a global war of oil. The US will in the future have to depend more and more on the oil coming from such countries which means that the US economy will, and is already depending very much on Middle Eastern and Asian countries.

When the Oil Runs Out

First of all I would like to straighten out how oil has contributed to our society today. Everything we eat, all our clothing, all of our buildings, roads, ships, planes, everything we have is built from oil, not directly but indirectly. Take the desk you are sitting at for example, it is not made by oil but the machines which dug out the metal, or cut down the tree needed for constructing of the desk is driven by oil. Now look around and you will see that in every direction oil has built our society. Without the oil we would have had nothing of the standard we have today. Oil has enabled us to fly to the moon, change landscapes, but it is all a temporary and extremely cheap energy source which has made it all possible. For thousands of years the “living standard” has not been as high as it is now and it all changed about 50-100 years ago. Are we so much more intelligent and developed than the Romans or the Greeks, or any other great civilization for that matter? The answer is no, we have oil.

When does the oil really run out? No one can say for sure but when it does there are two scenarios that can develop. The first scenario is that we have come up with a good alternative energy source in time which can be used instead of oil, we continue our way of living without the oil. The second scenario is a bit more terrifying, let’s say the oil runs out at 2050 and that we have no other reliable energy source which can replace oil. First of all, the largest issue to face, at least in Sweden but in other countries as well, we will have no food. What are we going to eat when the trucks loaded with food stop running back and forth? ICA will be empty and so will other shops be. Even if we do come up with some way of transport to bring food to all of Sweden the oil running out is very likely to bring economic collapse and depression in western countries. We won’t even be able to afford the little food that gets to us. We will be back to were we were before industrialization. People will have to move out from cities to start farming and gather resources by hand for survival, like we have done throughout human existence until we found oil.

I have now displayed two opposite scenarios which are very straight forward, but I am sure none of them will happen in the exact way I have shown you. There are many factors that play in and for example I don’t think we will ever run out of oil completely, in the end the price will be so high that it is not worth buying, and so oil will only be used in very small amounts in the chemical industry for example. I am barley showing you a scenario without oil to open up your eyes and so that people will understand how much oil is contributing to our society. But I think what is really going to happen when the oil “runs out”, (or is too expensive for daily use) is something in between the two scenarios I have shown. There are already and will be alternative fuels that we can use but the struggle for oil can still likely crash world economy as well as it can be the start of another world war, also the living standard will be lower as the oil grows more expensive, there will be larger differences between poor and rich as the price of living standard will be higher.

This is the political oil problem that we will have to face during the 21 century and that most of us will probably live to experience. I am not saying that whoever is reading this right now or me myself for that matter has to solve the problem themselves, but we have to be aware of it because it is our children who are going to live in the world after us, and it seems to me it is our responsibility to find a way that they can live on a good life after the oil crisis has past.

Sources

· Planeten, SVT:s TV-serie om global förändring

· www.spe.org

· The Real Oil Problem by M.A. Adelman at Massachusettes Institute of Technology